Two military analysts believe that a possible ground operation by the Israeli occupying army in southern Lebanon could be imminent, but its timing and nature depend on multiple strategic and terrain factors.
US media quoted officials as saying Israel was preparing for an “imminent” invasion of Lebanon, amid US concerns about the expansion of the war and British and French calls not to launch a ground attack against Lebanon.
In an analysis of the military scene, military and strategic expert Retired Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi said the operation could be launched within hours or days, and it would depend on the conditions on the terrain and objectives and the completion of the necessary preparations.
Al-Duwairi expects the operation to take the form of a multi-dimensional maneuver, including a primary and secondary attack, in addition to a supporting attack, within the framework of what are called military operations spouses.
Al-Duwairi details a possible scenario for the operation, starting with fighting on the front, with the possibility of carrying out deep landing operations and a supporting attack in another axis.
Secondary attack
Al-Duwairi believes that the main effort and primary attack will take place in the central region between Bint Jbeil, Aita al-Shaab and Hula, with the possibility of strengthening the secondary attack from the sea, accompanied by landing operations and a large-scale air offensive. campaign.
Regarding the depth of the operation, Al-Duwairi emphasizes that there are pressure factors on the occupying army that could push it to expand the scope of the operation. Even if the operation begins at a depth of 5 kilometers, Israeli military doctrine calls for consolidation. and develop success, which could lead to extending the operation to the Litani River if the first successes are obtained.
Al-Duwairi draws attention to the importance of Hezbollah’s medium- and long-range missiles, which can have a range of more than 300 kilometers. Israel is believed to be targeting accumulation zones and associated factories and warehouses. missiles, particularly in areas north of Baalbek and near Hermel.
Al-Duwairi also highlights the goal of working behind enemy lines, which is to modernize the intelligence information bank, especially in light of recent developments and potential changes in Hezbollah’s defense plan.
For his part, Brigadier General Elias Hanna focuses on the operational deployment of Hezbollah, emphasizing the importance of the Nasr, Aziz and Badr regions as the main contact center. He believes that the decisive battle will take place between the Nasr and Aziz regions, where Hezbollah is located. relies on strategic defense to protect its missile system.
Operating depth
Hanna believes that the occupying army will not agree to go to war on Hezbollah’s terms, stressing that the depth of the operation will depend on Israel’s desire to gain time and space, in taking into account growing challenges as forces penetrate.
Hanna believes that the incursion of Israeli forces and their presence on Lebanese territory could make them easy targets, in addition to the need to deploy a large number of units to maintain their presence. He also indicates that this incursion will restore legitimacy to Hezbollah. a resistance movement against the occupation.
Hanna compares the current situation to the 2006 war, highlighting the differences in readiness and preparations, and recalls the battle of Wadi al-Hujair, where Israeli forces suffered heavy losses without achieving their objectives.
He emphasizes that the success of the current operation will depend to a large extent on Hezbollah’s readiness and the preparation of the battlefield for retreat combat and flexible defense.
Hanna also draws attention to the differences between the environment the Israeli army will face in Lebanon and that it will face in the Gaza Strip, highlighting the mountainous nature of the Lebanese territory and its impact on the conduct of operations.