AnkaraGreek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ statement on the possibility of “military intervention” to protect his country’s continental shelf and exclusive economic zone has raised questions about developments in Turkish-Greek relations, which have recently seen a sharp decline. atmosphere of calm and dialogue.
Turkish media reported statements made by the Greek prime minister at a foreign policy conference in Athens on December 7, where he said he “sees no possibility of reaching a solution regarding the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf with Turkey”, referring to the possibility of asylum. To military intervention if necessary.
“I have witnessed the intervention of our armed forces in the past. If necessary, we will do it again, but I hope we will not need such an option,” Mitsotakis added. He also made clear that Greece was determined to defend its rights on the continental shelf in light of escalating Turkish activity in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Greek Prime Minister indicated that his country is well aware of Turkey’s adherence to the concept of “Blue Homeland”, but stressed that Athens continues to maintain its firm position on these issues. He said: “The only disagreement for us concerns the definition of the limits of the continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, and we are obliged to protect our rights in this regard.”
Mitsotakis called for a solution to the Cyprus issue that would not include any Turkish military presence or Turkish security guarantees. He stressed that the “Turkish occupation” of northern Cyprus, as he described it, has continued for 50 years, emphasizing that his country rejects any fait accompli resulting from this situation and emphasizing that the sole objective of the Greece is to establish a unified Cypriot state. free from foreign forces and traditional security guarantees.
Turkey adopts the “Blue Homeland” theory developed by Chief of Naval Staff Cihat Yaycı. This concept refers to the Turkish coastal region and the exclusive economic zone around the Black Sea, in addition to claims related to the continental shelf and the Black Sea exclusive economic zone. Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Sea.
Although Ankara has yet to make an official comment on the Greek Prime Minister’s statements, these developments open the door to divergent interpretations regarding their implications and timing, in light of regional complexities related to natural resources and maritime disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Ongoing dialogue
The Greek Prime Minister’s statements on the possibility of military intervention to protect the continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone come days after a new round of political dialogue meetings between Turkey and Greece held in Athens, the December 2 and 3, by Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister for European Affairs Mehmet Kemal Bozai and his Greek counterpart Alexandra Papadopoulou.
According to a joint statement issued after the meetings, the two sides discussed various aspects of bilateral relations and assessed current developments and future expectations, including preparations for the planned sixth session of the High-Level Cooperation Council. in Turkey at the beginning of next year.
This meeting follows the visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Athens last November, during which both sides emphasized the continued strengthening of dialogue to resolve issues of common interest.
Despite the persistent differences between the two countries on the issues of the continental shelf and the demarcation of maritime boundaries, both sides expressed their willingness to maintain open communication channels and strengthen cooperation in the areas of security and peace. migration, while emphasizing the importance of dialogue as a means. to address historical differences.
Controversial role
Last November, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement confirming its categorical rejection of the activities and studies carried out by the European Union to develop the maritime space between Turkey and Greece.
The statement explained that Ankara is closely following these developments, emphasizing its firm stance in protecting its rights in the Aegean and Mediterranean seas. He stressed that Turkey would not allow its rights to be violated under any circumstances, emphasizing that it would take all necessary measures to defend its interests.
The statement added that the maps used in these studies “lack legitimacy for Turkey and cannot have any legal or practical consequences.”
He also stressed that the European Union does not have the power to intervene in disputes related to maritime spaces between sovereign states, and that its intervention contributes to complicating the situation instead of facilitating solutions.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Mitsotakis had already met in New York, on the sidelines of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly last September, where Erdogan then underlined the possibility of taking positive measures for the future between the two countries on the basis of good neighborliness.
During the current year, Turkish-Greek relations have been marked by a series of landmark meetings, including Mitsotakis’ visit to Turkey last May, just five months after Erdogan’s visit to Athens in December 2023, during which the Strategic Cooperation Council between the two countries resumed.
It should be noted that this advice had already been canceled by a decision by Erdogan, who then threatened to intervene militarily against Greece due to its armament in the Aegean islands.
Internal policy
Yucel Ager, an analyst specializing in international law at the SITA Research Center, believes that Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ statements regarding military intervention are mainly due to internal considerations of Greek politics.
He explained, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that there is internal criticism in Greece directed against the government due to what is considered “excessive concessions” towards Turkey, especially with the successes achieved by Ankara in the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria, which raised concerns among radical nationalist circles in Greece and increased their pressure on the government.
In the analyst’s view, Mitsotakis’ comments on “military measures” are a reaction to these pressures and do not reflect a real intention to take military action.
Regarding the impact of these statements on bilateral relations, Ajir ruled out that they will soon lead to an escalation, indicating that Turkey is aware that such statements are linked to Greek domestic politics.
He added that both countries continue their efforts to build trust and a positive agenda, noting the upcoming official visit of the Greek Prime Minister to Turkey in February or March next year, during which Council meetings will be held high-level cooperation.
As for the possibility of continued tensions, Ajir believes that the possibility of escalation is low at present. But he stressed that opportunities for mediation between the two countries seem unrealistic in the near future, as it is difficult to imagine that any country or organization can play an effective mediation role.
He pointed out that the European Union takes biased positions that support the Greek side, while the United States could use its influence on Greece to push it towards solutions. However, Ager believes that such a move from the United States is not expected. in the short term, unless international developments require it.