Analysts and experts agree that the reduction of the US military presence in the Middle East is linked to their perception of a decrease in tensions in the region, while their opinions diverge on the link between this reduction and the issue of negotiations on the exchange of prisoners and stopping the war in the Gaza Strip.
The United States has reduced its military presence in the Middle East by repositioning the aircraft carrier Roosevelt and the destroyer Daniel Inouye to the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and the destroyer Russell has moved to the South China Sea. indicated to Israel that the presence of its warships in the region is not permanent.
According to what analysts told the program “Gaza: What Next?”, the US administration is sending messages to Tel Aviv about the need to control the escalation on the northern front, while emphasizing that Washington still has sufficient deterrent force in the region that can be used if necessary.
Professor of political science and international relations in Washington, Dr. Khalil Al-Anani, said that one of the main reasons for the reduction of the US military presence in the Middle East is the US administration’s sense of less escalation in the region, which has reduced the need to reduce the US military presence in the Middle East for the four aircraft carriers.
He stressed that the aircraft carrier “Abraham” and destroyers are still present in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, which is sufficient to face any threat, stressing that the risk of a regional war breaking out has decreased, especially after the absence of Iran’s strong reaction to the assassination of the leader of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) Ismail Haniyeh, even though it has not completely ended.
A desire to calm down
Al-Anani believes that this move reflects the American desire to calm the situation in the region to avoid getting involved in new conflicts while it is increasingly preoccupied with other issues, such as tensions with China and Russia. These steps are also linked, according to his opinion – to the American domestic situation in the run-up to a hot election season.
He explained that there is a feeling in the United States that Israel intends to launch a strike on southern Lebanon, but that no real pressure has been put on it so far, especially after its failure to achieve clear military objectives in Gaza, at a time when the Joe Biden administration believes that the situation does not require the aircraft carriers to remain in the area.
Al-Anani believes that the negotiations aimed at stopping the escalation in the Gaza Strip are almost over, adding in this context that America tried to deceive Iran into believing that there were diplomatic efforts to stop the war, which prompted Tehran not to react firmly.
Professors of political science and international relations also linked it to Washington’s efforts to demonstrate its commitment to reaching a deal to appease the United States internally and to court the Jewish and Islamic communities ahead of the upcoming election.
In turn, military and strategic expert General Fayez Al-Duwairi believes that it is necessary to examine the size of the American force actually present in the region, where huge forces belonging to the Fifth and Sixth Fleets are stationed, adding that the aircraft carrier “Abraham”, still present in the region, carries 90 aircraft and 2,480 pilots.
Al-Duwairi explained that the US military presence is still strong, as it has more than 60 military bases in the region and hundreds of aircraft, which represents a striking force that sends clear messages of deterrence, stressing at the same time that tensions in the region The situation in the region has decreased while the possibility of an Iranian strike remains, even if it is limited.
Message to Israel
However, he believes that the withdrawal of the US aircraft carriers sends a message to Israel about the need to stick to the ceiling of escalation and not move towards an open battle. He in turn rules out moving towards a land war in southern Lebanon given Hezbollah’s ability to launch more than 30,000 missiles covering all of occupied Palestine.
Al-Duwairi reiterates that the American deterrent force still exists, “but it was strengthened during the period of the aircraft carriers’ presence,” at a time when the question remains about the scale of the possible Iranian strike and whether it will be a real Iranian response or simply an attempt to restore dignity.
As for Israeli affairs writer Ihab Jabarin, he believes that Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy’s remarks about his intention to resign, as well as previous resignations of officials, show that there is no real intention to expand the northern front, and that the whole issue is linked to the price Israel might pay.
Jabareen says that Israel’s security is entirely linked to American support and the extent of the limits that Washington sets on its support, but he does not see any connection between Washington’s withdrawal of its aircraft carriers and developments related to the prisoner exchange deal and the end of Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip.
Jabareen explained that the relationship between the United States and Israel is complex and reciprocal and cannot be separated, stressing that Israel has shown that if there is a threat to its internal security, it will find Washington and its allies ready to defend it, which was proven on April 14.