After the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, in the context of major and rapid developments in the region, questions arise on the fate of the Israeli war on Gaza and the potential effects on the “axis of resistance”, including resistance in Palestine, Lebanon and elsewhere.
According to the opinions of experts and political analysts interviewed by Al Jazeera Net, these changes could contribute to the formation of new strategic alliances in the region, with direct and indirect impacts on the Palestinian question, whether in Gaza or in West Bank.
War in Gaza
Regarding the effects of these changes in the region on the course of the Gaza war, Egyptian writer and political scientist Dr. Khalil Al-Anani rules out that this war will end because the occupation insists on remaining there. . either way.
Al-Anani added on Al-Jazeera Net: “We may see a temporary pause due to internal and external pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but as long as there is occupation, there will be resistance ”, in his opinion.
He continues: “It is true that the regional situation does not seem favorable to resistance, but these are temporary and changing situations which will not resolve the battle in the foreseeable future.”
Writer and Israeli affairs expert Suleiman Bisharat agrees with Al-Anani in his prediction that the war on Gaza will continue, assuring Al Jazeera Net that the shadows of this war will remain for an estimated period of a year or more.
Bisharat clarifies that the continuation of the war does not necessarily mean the ferocity and ferocity of the fighting, but rather the persistence of its interactions, saying: “Even if we achieve at some stage a complete cessation of the war in the Strip Gaza, its repercussions will remain present, and the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip will continue to a certain extent, even if it is in a position on certain axes.
The Israeli affairs expert emphasizes that the current humanitarian situation in Gaza and the crimes of genocide and violations committed by Israel could pave the way for strong pressures that could be exerted at the legal and legal level, whether on the States- United or even on certain countries in the region or even on Israel, and could lead to… A political settlement to the detriment of the military option.
Weaken resistance
On the other hand, Ayman Youssef, professor of political science and conflict resolution at the Arab American University in Jenin, says what happened recently in Syria and Lebanon may have weakened the “resistance” front. and resistance” led by Iran.
In statements to Al Jazeera Net, Youssef expects Iran to change its policies in the region, not only towards Lebanon and Syria, but also towards Gaza and the Movement of the Islamic resistance (Hamas), especially since the resistance factions receive help from Iran, and therefore the absence of a strong military path supported by Iran means the presence of a…way of political negotiation.
In the same context, Al-Anani claims that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria represented a great loss for Iran and Hezbollah, which could exert pressure on the Palestinian resistance due to the party’s relations with the Iran.
Israel and America are expected to seek to take advantage of the new situation to pressure Hamas into making concessions regarding the ceasefire and hostage deal, stressing that all of this is temporary and linked to the directions of the new administration in Syria, and whether it is with or against the resistance, and that is a question left to time, as he said.
According to the Egyptian researcher, Palestinian resistance is based on two things: “the legitimate right to resist the usurping racist occupier, and this is a very important issue and represents a pillar in the struggles of the Palestinian people of all sects “.
The other problem lies in the popularity of the resistance, particularly among young people who refuse to surrender to the occupation, “which we see embodied in the West Bank and in Hamas’ ability to recruit new members despite the bloody war in the Gaza Strip. .”
Ayman Youssef in turn emphasizes that there is a clear decline in the strength of the Palestinian resistance, especially after targeting the senior leaders of the Hamas movement. In the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority seeks to demonstrate its ability to control security conditions. , which strengthens its role in the arrangements for the reconstruction of Gaza, but the division of the internal Palestinian situation complicates the scene, especially with the differences in the arrangements in Gaza and the West Bank.
The future of the West Bank
There are also fears about Israeli plans regarding the West Bank aimed at exploiting the current situation, which Bisharat highlights by saying: “The occupation seeks to transform its presence in the West Bank into a form similar to its situation in Gaza, which allows it to establish itself, build colonies and carry out its security and military operations without restrictions, which restores the concept of direct military occupation.
Bisharat added that the occupation binds Gaza and the West Bank under possible political agreements that could include giving up full control over Gaza in exchange for a green light to annex the West Bank and consider it an extension of the Jewish state, and this will lead to the complete elimination of the Palestinian state project.
As for Khalil Al-Anani, he does not rule out the fall of the Palestinian Authority “due to its loss of legitimacy and its repression of brigades and resistance movements in the West Bank, which will turn against it and could lead to its collapse,” according to his analysis.