Economist: Will the ‘drug-trafficking Syrian dictator’ emerge from isolation? | Economy

Bashar al-Assad’s internal and international isolation is likely to continue despite efforts by some Western and Arab countries to repair relations with him. Assad continues to rely on the Captagon trade to keep his limited influence separate from the influence of the many forces that share his rule in Syria, hoping that the world will accept his rule over time, according to a report in The Economist newspaper.

The newspaper’s report said the Syrian regime is suffering from a continuing erosion of its ability to govern and that the Syrian “dictator” lives in isolation, hoping and believing that if he remains in power, his international opponents’ fears of Iranian influence and another refugee crisis could prompt them to abandon their demands for political change and restored relations with Syria.

What supports this strategy has been achieved. Last year, the Arab League restored Assad’s membership and began sending aid. In July, eight European Union countries offered to communicate with Assad to try to restore relations with Assad and stimulate the Syrian economy. convince Syrian refugees to return.

Constant breakage

The Syrian interim government sees itself as a political alternative to post-Assad Syria and administers an area 40km south of the Turkish border that is relatively stable and has better living conditions than the rest of the country. But Turkey, which maintains 30,000 troops in northern Syria, prefers to use the interim government as a tool, the Economist report said.

The regime has lost control of the airspace and borders, and Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are exploiting the situation “as if the country belonged to them,” while Shiite militias from Iraq and Lebanon dominate the border areas and Hezbollah uses Syria as a base to launch missiles towards Israel, the report said.

The north, home to half of the country’s 16 million people, spiraled out of control eight years ago, with “Sunni factions” controlling the northwest while the Kurds, with US support, rule the northeast.

“Captagon is the lion’s lifeline.”

In this situation – as the newspaper puts it – the Captagon trade has become a key element in Assad’s survival strategy, as it monopolizes the drug trade in the face of “the collapse of the state” and its economy, and drug exports are worth twice the value of all legitimate exports combined, according to the World Bank.

The newspaper’s report said that Captagon’s revenues go to Assad, not the state, and that drug trafficking allows him to circumvent international sanctions and obtain the funds needed to stabilize his power without relying on international aid or foreign investment, helping him maintain a vast network of influence and loyalties inside Syria and contributing to the country’s deteriorating economy.

However, the report says these are ineffective strategies, especially in the face of the collapse of the economy and the establishment of the presence of some other countries in Syria.