It seems that the United States and Iran have placed its feet on the first path to reach an agreement – even if the nuclear program of Tehran, after the storm of mutual threats in recent weeks.
Analysts are not excluded from both parties to a close agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, but they excluded this agreement if the United States wanted to include the issue of Teheran missiles and its influence in the region.
After an indirect negotiation tour, the first between the two parties since Donald Trump resumed the reins of the government in the United States at the beginning of this year, the two parties expressed their optimism as to the possibility of achieving an agreement which guarantees the interests of both parties and maintains seriousness and mutual respect.
Oman remained silent and prevented journalists from reaching the headquarters of negotiations until he provides less tension for the two delegations, explains the Al -Jazeera correspondent in Muscat Samir Al -Nimri, noting that the meeting next Saturday “could be the start of the outline of these discussions which do not know what is discussed on Saturday”. “”
A positive atmosphere does not mean reaching an agreement
Despite the positive reaction, the strategic analyst of the Republican Party, Adolfo Franco, believes that these negotiations are preliminary, which indicates that Iran wants indirect discussions to save time to develop its nuclear program.
During his participation in the “Path of events”, Franco said that the Trump administration had asked for direct and prerequisite for that he does not take to conclude a two -year agreement, as has happened in the first agreement.
The spokesman expected to achieve a temporary agreement of one year or two which does not include other regional problems, as an introduction to wider negotiations and a longer agreement, stressing that the States of the United States will not allow Tehran to have a nuclear bomb.
Franco suggested that the United States would not count on IAEA inspectors who are prevented from reaching the majority of Iranian establishments, and believes that the failure of the military strike from its nuclear installations will be an Iranian gain from any agreement with Trump.
A possible temporary agreement
And on the concessions that Trump and his envoy in the Middle East, Steve Wittouf, talked about his presentation in order to achieve an agreement, Franco said that this could relate to the postponement of the discussion of interest files for Israel and certain Washington Arab allies such as Iranian missiles and the support of Ansar Allah (the Houthis) in Yemen and Hezbollah Lebanon.
But Franco – who said he was talking to Trump and his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mike Rubio – stressed that any future agreement would not be similar to the previous agreement in which Iran took advantage of his sanctions to develop his nuclear program.
The professor of political studies at the University of Tehran, Dr. Hamid Mousavi, did not disagree with Franco from the possibility of a rapid agreement on the nuclear program, but he said that it would be completely linked to the lifting or attenuation of the sanctions.
Mousavi believes that Iran has a capacity when the United States does not have, then talking about the nuclear file only with the lifting of sanctions against Iran could end with the agreement at the end of next summer as the Americans wish.
However, the spokesperson completely excluded a close agreement in the event that the talks dealt with the missile program and the regional influence of Tehran, because these questions are linked to other things that cannot be negligent, as well as the position of the supreme chief Ali Khamenei.
Mousavi does not see that Iran has a problem in reducing the enrichment of uranium or the opening of its installation to inspection, because it does not want to obtain a nuclear weapon, indicating that it has responded to an American demand to reduce the fertilization rate to 60%, but it will not accept it completely.
With its recognition of the importance of raising sanctions for Iran, Mousavi thinks that Tehran is not weak because some are trying to photograph, because it has an advanced nuclear program and another very advanced missile.
As for the professor of international relations at the University of Geneva in Paris Hosni Abidi, he thinks that negotiations did not drop from the first moment and have not made great progress, but rather discussed what will be negotiated and the mechanism of these negotiations.
Abidi considers that a broader agreement may be concluded which includes greater disputed problems in the event that the two parties may reach a preliminary nuclear and penalties agreement, and he considers that both parties do not want to collapse negotiations.
Abidi maintained talking about Iran’s ability to negotiate for a long time, and said that she benefited from the withdrawal of Trump from the previous agreement that he developed his nuclear capacities, adding that she understood the current nature of the American administration while the latter does not understand the nature of Tehran and does not have the luxury of time.
During Trump’s retirement from his threats to strike Iran, Abidi said that the American president could consider this decline as a concession on his part and at the same time, he would consider negotiations as a justification for the Israelis and the members of the Republican Party, because it is difficult to strike Iran and negotiate with it at the same time.
Consequently, Trump tries to negotiate with Tehran currently on his nuclear program with the postponement of talking about questions that represent fears for Israel and certain Washington allies in the region, says Ubaydi.
The spokesman concluded that Iran had reached the nuclear threshold and that he wanted this threshold and did not reach a nuclear bomb, but Europeans and the Americans do not trust him and believe that he takes advantage of the negotiations to make weapons, because she does not trust them either and does not guarantee that the Americans will not withdraw in the future of the future.